Jerry Jeudy Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Jerry Jeudy

NFL · Player Props

Jerry Jeudy

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:17 AM EST

Analysis

Jerry Jeudy Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Jerry Jeudy slots into the 80th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a massive 51.9 mark this year.
The Denver offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Jerry Jeudy's 71.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a meaningful improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 67.4% figure.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos have a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Broncos to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Broncos this year (only 53.2 per game on average).
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62.6%) versus wideouts this year (62.6%).

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