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Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns

Jerry Jeudy Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-112/+111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 47.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Browns are a huge 10-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

The predictive model expects the Browns to be the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 67.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Cleveland Browns have run the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 62.2 plays per game.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (34.5 per game) since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Browns to call the 10th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Jerry Jeudy has been much less involved in his offense's passing offense this season (18.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (23.6%).

Jerry Jeudy has accrued significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (33.0) this year than he did last year (69.0).

Jerry Jeudy's 48.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a meaningful reduction in his receiving skills over last season's 63.9% rate.

Jerry Jeudy's receiving efficiency has worsened this year, compiling a measly 6.29 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.24 rate last year.

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