Jerry Jeudy Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jerry Jeudy

NFL · Player Props

Jerry Jeudy

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 8, 2024 7:21 PM EST

Analysis

Jerry Jeudy Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by our trusted projection set to have 134.7 total plays run: the most among all games this week.
The highest number of plays in football have been called by the Browns last year (a whopping 63.8 per game on average).
When it comes to air yards, Jerry Jeudy ranks in the towering 79th percentile among WRs last year, totaling an astounding 71.0 per game.
Jerry Jeudy rates in the 80th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with a superb 52.4 figure last year.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Browns profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL last year.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Browns as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense last year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has given up the 6th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 122.0) versus WRs last year.
The Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (59.1%) to wide receivers last year (59.1%).

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