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Jerome Ford

Jerome Ford Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Cleveland Browns vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Jerome Ford Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+750/-1350).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1550 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1350.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs this week, implying more of a focus on passing than their normal game plan.
  • The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.22 seconds per play.
  • The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
  • The predictive model expects Jerome Ford to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game near the end zone in this game (0.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (12.5% in games he has played).
  • Jerome Ford has not rushed for any touchdowns this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Right now, the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in football (62.6% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Browns.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Vikings, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 27.2 per game) this year.
  • The projections expect Jerome Ford to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing attack near the end zone in this week's contest (4.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.5% in games he has played).
  • Jerome Ford has totaled a paltry -5.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 19th percentile among RBs.
  • As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Cleveland Browns ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year.

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