Jerome Ford Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jerome Ford

NFL · Player Props

Jerome Ford

RB · Cleveland Browns

Touchdowns

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 11, 2025

Updated Nov 16, 2025 8:27 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerome Ford Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+810/-1800).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +840 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +810.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Browns, who are big -7.5-point underdogs.
With a 59.5% rate of throwing the ball in the red zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in this regard has been the Browns.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Browns are forecasted by the projection model to run 66.6 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
The Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.1 per game) this year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Browns to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 24-mph being called for in this game) usually mean lessened passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher run volume.
Our trusted projections expect Jerome Ford to be a less important option in his team's air attack near the end zone this week (5.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.4% in games he has played).
Jerome Ford has accumulated a puny -3.0 air yards per game this year: just 19th percentile when it comes to running backs.
In regards to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Browns ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.

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