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Jerome Ford

Jerome Ford Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Cleveland Browns vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Jerome Ford Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs this week, implying more of a focus on passing than their normal game plan.
  • The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.22 seconds per play.
  • The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
  • Jerome Ford has been a much smaller piece of his team's offense this season, staying in the game for just 41.8% of snaps compared to 54.8% last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Right now, the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in football (62.6% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Browns.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Vikings, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 27.2 per game) this year.
  • As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Cleveland Browns ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • Jerome Ford's 84.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last season's 87.9% figure.
  • Since the start of last season, the strong Vikings defense has given up a meager 80.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 8th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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