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Jerome Ford Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+115/-150).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +115.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Browns, who are big -7.5-point underdogs.Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Browns are forecasted by the projection model to run 66.6 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.The Cleveland Browns have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.The Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.1 per game) this year.Jerome Ford checks in as one of the top RB receiving threats this year, averaging an excellent 2.1 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Right now, the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in football (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Cleveland Browns.Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being called for in this game) usually mean lessened passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher run volume.Jerome Ford has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (35.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (48.5%).In regards to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Browns ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.This year, the strong Ravens defense has allowed a puny 77.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL.
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