Jerome Ford Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jerome Ford

NFL · Player Props

Jerome Ford

RB · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerome Ford Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-180/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -158 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have called the 4th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.0 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Jerome Ford to be much more involved in his offense's passing offense this week (10.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.0% in games he has played).
The Cleveland Browns O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Completion% in football (83.7%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (83.7%).

Favors Under

The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

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