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Jerome Ford

Jerome Ford Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

New England Patriots vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
Jerome Ford Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -7-point disadvantage, the Browns are enormous underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their typical approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Browns offense to be the 3rd-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.70 seconds per play.
  • Jerome Ford has been a key part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 9.2% this year, which places him in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Jerome Ford's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 87.8% to 90.9%.
  • The Patriots pass defense has been gouged for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (88.3%) versus running backs this year (88.3%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Browns to be the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.9% pass rate.
  • Jerome Ford has posted a puny -4.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 17th percentile among RBs.
  • When it comes to pass protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Browns grades out as the worst in the league this year.
  • Jerome Ford has accrued significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (10.0) this year than he did last year (15.0).
  • Jerome Ford's 3.7 adjusted yards per target this year shows a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 5.2 mark.

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