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Jerome Ford

Jerome Ford Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns

Jerome Ford Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-112/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Browns are a huge 10-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

The predictive model expects the Browns to be the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 67.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Cleveland Browns have run the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 62.2 plays per game.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (34.5 per game) since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Browns to call the 10th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

When talking about air yards, Jerome Ford ranks in the measly 14th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, totaling just -2.0 per game.

Jerome Ford's 8.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year reflects a noteable decrease in his receiving skills over last year's 16.0 rate.

Jerome Ford's 3.0 adjusted yards per target this year marks a meaningful reduction in his receiving prowess over last year's 5.2 mark.

Jerome Ford's ability to generate extra yardage has tailed off this season, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 7.57 rate last season.

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