Jerome Ford Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jerome Ford

NFL · Player Props

Jerome Ford

RB · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 11, 2025

Updated Nov 15, 2025 8:47 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerome Ford Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Browns, who are big -7.5-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Browns are forecasted by the projection model to run 66.6 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
The Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.1 per game) this year.
This year, the poor Baltimore Ravens defense has been torched for a monstrous 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the 8th-most in the league.

Favors Under

Right now, the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in football (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Cleveland Browns.
Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being called for in this game) usually mean lessened passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher run volume.
Jerome Ford has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (35.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (48.5%).
Jerome Ford has accumulated a puny -3.0 air yards per game this year: just 19th percentile when it comes to running backs.
In regards to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Browns ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.

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