Jerome Ford Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Jerome Ford

NFL · Player Props

Jerome Ford

RB · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerome Ford Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-142/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns may take to the air less in this game (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have called the most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 66.3 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in football.
The model projects Jerome Ford to accumulate 3.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Browns to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
With a poor 69.0% Adjusted Completion Rate (10th percentile) this year, Jerome Ford ranks as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to running backs.
Jerome Ford comes in as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among running backs, averaging just 4.54 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 10th percentile.
Jerome Ford is positioned as one of the weakest RBs in football at generating extra yardage in the passing game, averaging just 5.20 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 20th percentile.
The Jaguars linebackers grade out as the 9th-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

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