Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 22

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 10:26 PM EST

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+106/-124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Jerick McKinnon has been a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this season (18.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (4.0%).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Jerick McKinnon has run for quite a few more yards per game (18.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 34.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Jerick McKinnon has been among the weakest RBs in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a measly 2.26 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 25th percentile.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends profile as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.