Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (+106/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a massive 12.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jerick McKinnon has been much more involved in his offense's running game this season (22.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (4.5%).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
Jerick McKinnon has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (20.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 8th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 36.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos defensive tackles rank as the 6th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on just 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.