Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 68.4% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.1 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Jerick McKinnon to accrue 3.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs.
As it relates to air yards, Jerick McKinnon ranks in the towering 94th percentile among RBs this year, accruing a remarkable 4.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).

Favors Under

With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Jerick McKinnon has been relied on much less in his team's passing attack.
Jerick McKinnon's 16.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a noteable reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 30.0 figure.
Jerick McKinnon's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 81.5% to 73.7%.
Jerick McKinnon's pass-catching efficiency has diminished this season, accumulating a mere 6.21 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.57 figure last season.
The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the best safety corps in the league this year in defending receivers.