Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 12, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the most pass-heavy team in football (69.3% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.
Jerick McKinnon's 13.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a a meaningful improvement in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year's 9.1% mark.
The Broncos defense has allowed the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (45.0) to running backs this year.
The Broncos pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency against running backs this year, surrendering 7.68 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in the NFL.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Denver's group of LBs has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a heavy 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased run volume.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (just 32.4 per game) this year.
Jerick McKinnon has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (33.3% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (48.5%).

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