Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 12:25 AM EST

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-160/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.2 plays per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Jerick McKinnon has compiled a paltry -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 8th percentile among running backs.
Jerick McKinnon's pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, accumulating a measly 5.66 yards-per-target vs a 7.53 figure last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency versus RBs since the start of last season, yielding 5.46 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in the NFL.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.