Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 12:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jerick McKinnon to accrue 5.6 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Jerick McKinnon has been a more integral piece of his team's passing attack this year (11.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.7%).
Jerick McKinnon has posted a monstrous 3.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 8.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Jerick McKinnon's pass-game effectiveness has worsened this season, totaling a measly 7.96 yards-per-target compared to a 9.20 rate last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.