Jerick McKinnon Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+438/-1002).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -984 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1002.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 6th-most in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Jerick McKinnon grades out in the 82nd percentile among running backs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.14 per game.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (87.2%) vs. running backs this year (87.2%).
The Tennessee Titans defense has surrendered the 8th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL to RBs: 0.29 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jerick McKinnon has accrued a mere -1.0 air yards per game this year: just 23rd percentile among running backs.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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