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Jeff Wilson

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects Jeff Wilson to be a more important option in his offense's ground game in this contest (29.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (16.2% in games he has played).

With an exceptional tally of 4.78 adjusted yards per carry (84th percentile), Jeff Wilson rates among the leading running backs in the league since the start of last season.

With a terrific rate of 3.00 yards after contact (76th percentile), Jeff Wilson has been as one of the strongest RBs in football since the start of last season.

The Bills defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games since the start of last season, giving up 4.69 adjusted yards-per-carry.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins as the 4th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 37.7% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Miami Dolphins since the start of last season (a lowly 55.7 per game on average).

Miami's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially decreased (and running stats too high) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with better weather this week.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may slide.

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