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Jeff Wilson
NFL · Player Props
Jeff Wilson
RB · Miami Dolphins
Rushing Yards
New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 12, 2023 Updated Nov 24, 2023 8:06 PM UTC
NFL Props Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-135/-101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -135.

Favors Over
  • This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
  • When talking about run support (and the influence it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins profiles as the 7th-best in the league last year.
  • Jeff Wilson's running effectiveness (4.93 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (88th percentile among RBs).
  • This year, the poor New York Jets run defense has allowed a monstrous 134.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 7th-most in the league.
Favors Under
  • Right now, the 6th-least run-oriented offense in football (35.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Dolphins.
  • Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are expected by the predictive model to run just 64.0 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Miami Dolphins have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
  • Jeff Wilson has been a much smaller part of his team's running game this year (12.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (46.3%).
  • When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, New York's collection of LBs has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.
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