Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-135/-101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
When talking about run support (and the influence it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins profiles as the 7th-best in the league last year.
Jeff Wilson's running effectiveness (4.93 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (88th percentile among RBs).
This year, the poor New York Jets run defense has allowed a monstrous 134.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 7th-most in the league.

Favors Under

Right now, the 6th-least run-oriented offense in football (35.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Dolphins.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are expected by the predictive model to run just 64.0 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
Jeff Wilson has been a much smaller part of his team's running game this year (12.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (46.3%).
When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, New York's collection of LBs has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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