Jeff Wilson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing TD

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-most run-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
Jeffery Wilson has been given 42.9% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
Jeffery Wilson has run for 0.40 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the NFL among running backs (86th percentile).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.00 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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