Jeff Wilson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing TD

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-134/+101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -133 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game near the end zone this week (70.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (39.6% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in football this year in run blocking.
Jeffery Wilson has run for 0.30 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (75th percentile).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-most TDs in the league (1.40 per game) versus the Houston Texans defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 9th-least run-centric offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 39.9% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.6 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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