Jeff Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 4, 2022 12:00 AM EST

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+165/-225).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -225.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Jeffery Wilson has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among RBs, hauling in an impressive 100.0% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 100th percentile.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties rank as the worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 57.0 plays per game.
Jeffery Wilson has been a more important option in his team's offense this season, staying in the game for 59.0% of snaps vs just 59.0% last season.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.