Jeff Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 25, 2023 3:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
As it relates to air yards, Jeff Wilson ranks in the lofty 97th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, accumulating a monstrous 5.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
Jeff Wilson's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 53.8% to 85.7%.
Jeff Wilson's 7.4 adjusted yards per target this season represents a meaningful boost in his receiving skills over last season's 4.3 rate.
Jeff Wilson has been one of the leading running backs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a remarkable 9.17 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 83rd percentile.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are expected by the predictive model to run just 64.0 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.2 per game) this year.
Jeff Wilson's 20.2% Route Participation% this year represents a meaningful decline in his pass attack usage over last year's 45.6% mark.