J.D. McKissic Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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J.D. McKissic

NFL · Player Props

J.D. McKissic

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

J.D. McKissic Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+102/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 126.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles project as the worst collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders have elected to go for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
J.D. McKissic has been among the weakest running backs in the league at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a mere 2.02 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 20th percentile.

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