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J.D. McKissic

J.D. McKissic Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
J.D. McKissic Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+750/-2000).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 26.71 seconds per play.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
  • THE BLITZ projects J.D. McKissic to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (11.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded the 2nd-least touchdowns through the air in football to RBs: 0.10 per game since the start of last season.
  • The Dallas Cowboys safeties profile as the 8th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
  • The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
  • The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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