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Jaylen Wright

Jaylen Wright Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Jaylen Wright Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+710/-780).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1250 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -780.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (90%) vs. running backs this year (90.0%).
  • This year, the weak Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up a massive 0.27 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing running backs: the 5th-worst rate in football.
  • The Buccaneers linebackers project as the 4th-worst LB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 54.8% of their chances: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 10th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 47.0% red zone run rate.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the fewest among all games this week.
  • The lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a measly 51.9 per game on average).
  • When talking about pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Dolphins ranks as the worst in the league this year.

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