My Account Log Out
 
 
Jaylen Wright

Jaylen Wright Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Jaylen Wright Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+750/-1300).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1700 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1300.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (58.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Dolphins.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in football versus the Washington Commanders defense this year (74.7% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the feeble Washington Commanders defense has surrendered a colossal 0.30 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing RBs: the 8th-biggest rate in the NFL.
  • As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Washington's collection of DEs has been excellent this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to run just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 51.7 per game on average).
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™