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Jaylen Wright Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-111/-111).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are massive underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 58.2% of their downs: the 10th-highest clip on the slate this week.The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85%) versus RBs this year (85.0%).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The model projects the Dolphins to call the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.The Miami Dolphins have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 51.8 plays per game.When it comes to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Miami Dolphins profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.The New England Patriots pass defense has shown good efficiency versus RBs this year, surrendering 5.34 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in the NFL.As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New England's LB corps has been outstanding this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the NFL.
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