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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
Jaylen Warren Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+115/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -126 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects Jaylen Warren to be a much smaller part of his offense's ground game near the goal line this week (68.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (85.7% in games he has played).
  • Jaylen Warren's 17.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the league leaders: 90th percentile for running backs.
  • With a remarkable 91.7% Adjusted Completion Rate (77th percentile) this year, Jaylen Warren places among the best possession receivers in the NFL among running backs.
  • With a fantastic ratio of 0.25 per game through the air (93rd percentile), Jaylen Warren places among the best receiving touchdown-scorers in football when it comes to running backs this year.
  • The rushing touchdown line reads "0" on the back of Jaylen Warren's trading card this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 9th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 56.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • At the moment, the 8th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (46.2% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have only 127.4 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
  • The 2nd-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Steelers this year (only 48.8 per game on average).

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