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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

Jaylen Warren Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +148 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.2% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency among all teams this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (34.8 per game) since the start of last season.

The leading projections forecast Jaylen Warren to be a much smaller piece of his team's run game near the goal line in this game (69.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (85.7% in games he has played).

Jaylen Warren has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 12.1% since the start of last season, which places him in the 89th percentile among RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to be the 7th-most run-oriented team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 46.6% red zone run rate.

The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.28 seconds per snap.

When you add up all of his team's air yards this year, Jaylen Warren is only responsible for a measly -4.3%, ranking him in the 17th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Since the start of last season, the imposing Vikings defense has surrendered a measly 79.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 7th-lowest rate in the league.

The Vikings safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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