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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-105/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +121 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

With an extraordinary 12.5% Red Zone Target Rate (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Jaylen Warren rates among the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume near the goal line in the league.

Jaylen Warren ranks in the 78th percentile among RBs since the start of last season with a colossal 0.2% of his offense's air yards accumulated.

Jaylen Warren's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 89.7% to 100.0%.

Since the start of last season, the poor Patriots defense has been gouged for a massive 0.37 receiving TDs per game to opposing running backs: the highest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 57.1% rate of running the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-most run-centric offense in the league in these situations has been the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 29.10 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time.

While Jaylen Warren has accounted for 25.8% of his team's red zone run game usage in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Pittsburgh's running game near the goal line in this week's contest at 68.2%.

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