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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Jaylen Warren Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-240).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +230 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +220.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.7% of their plays: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 133.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
  • When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.
  • Jaylen Warren's 95.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a meaningful growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 89.6% mark.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Steelers have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
  • Out of all RBs, Jaylen Warren grades out in the 90th percentile for red zone carries this year, taking on 56.3% of the usage in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone.
  • Jaylen Warren has notched a paltry -7.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 6th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Jaylen Warren's 10.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 16.7.
  • With an impressive rate of 0.33 touchdowns on the ground per game (76th percentile), Jaylen Warren rates among the top rushing TD-scorers in the league this year.

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