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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Jaylen Warren Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+174/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +180 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +174.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's line indicates a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3 points.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Steelers to pass on 61.5% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower run volume.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
  • When it comes to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Steelers this year (a measly 52.9 per game on average).
  • Out of all running backs, Jaylen Warren ranks in the 88th percentile for red zone rush attempts this year, taking on 55.7% of the usage in his team's running game near the end zone.
  • Jaylen Warren has accumulated a paltry -6.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 7th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Jaylen Warren's 10.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 16.7.
  • With a fantastic ratio of 0.35 TDs on the ground per game (77th percentile), Jaylen Warren places as one of the top rushing touchdown-scorers in the league this year.

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