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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.2% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency among all teams this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (34.8 per game) since the start of last season.

This week, Jaylen Warren is forecasted by the predictive model to find himself in the 94th percentile among running backs with 4.8 targets.

With an exceptional 11.8% Target Share (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Jaylen Warren stands among the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.28 seconds per snap.

Since the start of last season, the imposing Vikings defense has surrendered a measly 79.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 7th-lowest rate in the league.

The Vikings safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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