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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -190.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is implied by the Steelers being a heavy -7.5-point underdog this week.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Steelers to pass on 65.3% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • The model projects Jaylen Warren to total 4.1 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 91st percentile among running backs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 51.3 plays per game.
  • Jaylen Warren's 11.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 16.7.
  • The Lions pass defense has conceded the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (78.3%) to running backs this year (78.3%).
  • The Lions safeties project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

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