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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -210.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
  • The projections expect the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to garner 3.0 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
  • Jaylen Warren has been a big part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 9.8% this year, which puts him in the 81st percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Jaylen Warren checks in as one of the best RBs in the pass game this year, averaging an exceptional 2.5 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish tempo on the slate this week, averaging 26.57 seconds per play given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • The fewest plays in the league have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a mere 46.3 per game on average).
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 28.8 per game) this year.
  • This year, the fierce Buffalo Bills defense has yielded a paltry 74.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 3rd-best rate in football.

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