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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-117/-107).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -107.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
  • To the extent of a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.96 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-fastest in football (adjusted for context) at the present time.
  • Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to garner 2.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
  • Jaylen Warren checks in as one of the best RBs in the pass game this year, averaging an exceptional 2.3 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 79th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) usually prompt decreased passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher rush volume.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.3 per game) this year.
  • Jaylen Warren's 11.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 16.7.
  • This year, the fierce Buffalo Bills defense has yielded a paltry 76.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 5th-best rate in football.

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