Jaylen Warren Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.3 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the most passes in the league (43.7 per game) this year.
In this week's contest, Jaylen Warren is forecasted by the projections to rank in the 88th percentile among running backs with 4.3 targets.
Jaylen Warren's 14.7% Target% this year signifies a noteable progression in his air attack volume over last year's 6.3% rate.

Favors Under

The Steelers have run the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.5 plays per game.
The Pittsburgh offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Jaylen Warren's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 88.1% to 83.4%.
The Jaguars linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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