Jaylen Warren Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 8, 2023 3:51 AM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week, Jaylen Warren is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 77th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.6 targets.
Jaylen Warren has been much more involved in his team's air attack this season (13.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (6.3%).
Jaylen Warren's 3.2 adjusted catches per game this year shows a remarkable improvement in his receiving skills over last year's 1.8 rate.
The New England Patriots pass defense has been torched for the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (89.7%) to RBs this year (89.7%).
The New England Patriots safeties project as the 10th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Our trusted projections expect the Steelers as the 5th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 52.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by the projections to call only 63.6 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a measly 55.5 per game on average).
The Pittsburgh O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

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