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Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-120/-108).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -120.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may slide.Opposing QBs have averaged 42.5 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: most in the league.Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to total 4.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs.Jaylen Warren has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 12.8% this year, which puts him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to running backs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 49.3 plays per game.Jaylen Warren's talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this season, compiling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 8.18 rate last season.This year, the fierce Packers defense has given up the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing RBs: a paltry 4.0 yards.As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Green Bay's collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.
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