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Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-118).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -118.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The leading projections forecast the Steelers to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop-off.This week, Jaylen Warren is predicted by the projections to find himself in the 85th percentile among running backs with 4.2 targets.Jaylen Warren has been a big part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 13.0% this year, which ranks in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs.Jaylen Warren profiles as one of the best running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 25.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Steelers are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.The Steelers have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 49.6 plays per game.In regards to air yards, Jaylen Warren ranks in the lowly 23rd percentile among running backs this year, totaling just -3.0 per game.The Pittsburgh O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.Jaylen Warren's talent in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this season, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 8.18 rate last season.
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