Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 6, 2025

Updated Oct 12, 2025 8:07 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-109/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week, Jaylen Warren is forecasted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 93rd percentile among running backs with 4.7 targets.
With an extraordinary 11.8% Target Rate (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Jaylen Warren ranks among the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads in football.
Jaylen Warren has notched many more adjusted receiving yards per game (28.0) this season than he did last season (21.0).
With a remarkable 91.7% Adjusted Completion Rate (77th percentile) this year, Jaylen Warren places among the best possession receivers in the NFL among running backs.
Jaylen Warren's 9.3 adjusted yards per target this season shows a substantial improvement in his pass-catching ability over last season's 7.2 mark.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
Our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 9th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 56.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have only 127.4 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
The 2nd-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Steelers this year (only 48.8 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Browns defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.

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