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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.2% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency among all teams this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (34.8 per game) since the start of last season.

This week, Jaylen Warren is forecasted by the predictive model to find himself in the 94th percentile among running backs with 4.8 targets.

With an exceptional 11.8% Target Share (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Jaylen Warren stands among the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.28 seconds per snap.

When you add up all of his team's air yards this year, Jaylen Warren is only responsible for a measly -4.3%, ranking him in the 17th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Jaylen Warren's talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this year, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 8.18 rate last year.

The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. running backs since the start of last season, conceding 5.16 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in the league.

Since the start of last season, the strong Vikings pass defense has yielded the 6th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing running backs: a paltry 6.0 YAC.

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