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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+100/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -103.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is implied by the Steelers being a heavy -7.5-point underdog this week.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Steelers to pass on 65.3% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • The model projects Jaylen Warren to total 4.1 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 91st percentile among running backs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 51.3 plays per game.
  • Jaylen Warren has put up a puny -6.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 6th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Jaylen Warren's 11.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 16.7.
  • Jaylen Warren's ability to generate extra yardage has tailed off this season, totaling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 8.18 rate last season.
  • This year, the formidable Lions defense has yielded a meager 24.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the 5th-best in the league.

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