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Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-120).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -120.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Jaylen Warren has been heavily involved in his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 10.2% this year, which ranks him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.Jaylen Warren checks in as one of the leading pass-catching RBs this year, averaging a stellar 20.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 91st percentile.Jaylen Warren's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 89.5% to 95.8%.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 5.5 points.The fewest plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a lowly 50.2 per game on average).Windy weather conditions (like the 19-mph being forecasted in this game) typically lead to lessened passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased ground volume.When talking about air yards, Jaylen Warren grades out in the paltry 9th percentile among RBs this year, accruing just -5.0 per game.Jaylen Warren's skills in generating extra yardage have tailed off this year, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 8.18 figure last year.
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