Jaylen Warren Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-154/+116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ +116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
The model projects the Steelers to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a massive 60.4 plays per game.
Jaylen Warren has been a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this season (29.8% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (16.3%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

The Steelers have been the 8th-least run-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 35.4% run rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

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