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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+152/-158).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +148 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +152.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Dolphins, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to pass on 61.8% of their downs: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
  • At the moment, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Miami Dolphins.
  • The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (39.7 per game) this year.
  • Jaylen Waddle has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which ranks in the 94th percentile among wideouts.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 59.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (just 51.8 per game on average).
  • When it comes to pass protection (and the importance it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Dolphins profiles as the worst in football this year.
  • Opposing teams have rushed for the 2nd-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.43 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
  • The Ravens defensive ends grade out as the worst collection of DEs in football this year in regard to defending the run.

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