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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-240).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -220 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -240.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.9% red zone pass rate.

Jaylen Waddle has received a whopping 24.8% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 80th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Jaylen Waddle's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 69.6% to 81.2%.

Jaylen Waddle grades out in the 93rd percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.50 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Jets, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.4 per game) since the start of last season.

The Dolphins are willing to include receivers in their running game, and Jaylen Waddle has garnered 2.9% of red zone rush attempts since the start of last season (0th when it comes to WRs).

The projections expect Jaylen Waddle to be a much smaller part of his team's air attack near the goal line this week (18.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (33.3% in games he has played).

More Jaylen Waddle Player Props

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