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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-240).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -260 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -240.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
  • With an impressive 22.0% Red Zone Target Share (88th percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle stands among the WRs with the most usage near the end zone in the league.
  • After totaling 56.0 air yards per game last year, Jaylen Waddle has posted big gains this year, now sitting at 84.0 per game.
  • Jaylen Waddle's 66.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 43.8.
  • With a remarkable ratio of 0.35 per game through the air (82nd percentile), Jaylen Waddle has been as one of the best receiving TD-scorers in the NFL among wide receivers this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 54.8% of their chances: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 10th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 47.0% red zone run rate.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the fewest among all games this week.
  • The lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a measly 51.9 per game on average).
  • When talking about pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Dolphins ranks as the worst in the league this year.

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